Especialización en Gerencia de Proyectos
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Item Impacto de los sobrecostos en proyectos de infraestructura pública y privada sobre el valor de los activos desde la gestión de proyectosJuan David Herrera Barragán; Miguel Ángel Herrera Barragán; Laura Liliana Linares RomeroFor a long time, cost overruns in infrastructure projects have been treated as an obvious, almost self-evident symptom: a budget deviation that must be corrected or, at best, justified. But hidden within this widespread yet superficial interpretation is a crucial omission. The focus is on measuring how much more is spent, but rarely is the question asked of what is actually gained in return. As if the additional money, simply by virtue of being invested, carries an implicit promise of value. Any research that aspires to say something relevant about reality faces a silent dilemma: remain in the comfort of theory or risk the imperfection of the data. This study, wisely, opts for the latter without abandoning the former, and in that decision lies one of its greatest strengths. The combination of theoretical review and analysis of real-world cases is not new, but here it acquires a particular nuance. It is not about using theory as decoration or data as mere illustration, but about making them engage in dialogue. Twenty infrastructure and building projects developed in Colombia between 2005 and 2023 thus become more than just a sample: they function as fragments of a broader story, where each initial budget and each final cost reveals decisions, contexts, and, on many occasions, discrepancies that are difficult to ignore. The results show that cost overruns are not exceptional, but quite frequent, reaching increases of nearly 87.88% in some cases and an average of approximately 32%. But beyond these figures, the most important finding is that spending more does not necessarily mean the project is worth more. In fact, situations were identified where cost overruns cease to add value and become inefficiencies, especially when they exceed certain levels. In this sense, the work proposes a way of understanding projects that goes beyond cost control, integrating cost analysis with value creation. It also suggests the use of agile approaches as a useful tool for making valuation a more flexible process, better suited to the changing realities of projects. Taken together, these results aim to contribute not only to a better understanding of the problem, but also to improved decision-making in infrastructure development.
