Propuesta para la gestión de inventarios mediante estudios de pronóstico de demanda en empresas metalmecánicas de la localidad de Fontibón en Bogotá D.C Colombia.

Abstract

This research aims to analyze inventory management in metalworking companies in the Fontibón district, identifying the main deficiencies in their processes and proposing improvements based on demand forecasting tools. To develop the study, a survey was administered to companies in the sector, revealing that a large proportion of them do not use formal methods for demand planning, relying primarily on experience or empirical practices. This situation has led to problems such as excess inventory, raw material losses, and negative impacts on profitability. Based on this diagnosis, a proposal was designed based on the implementation of a demand forecasting model using RStudio software and techniques such as exponential smoothing. This model generated estimates of future demand and incorporated uncertainty analysis, facilitating decision-making. Finally, a cost-benefit analysis was conducted, which demonstrated that the proposal is economically viable, as it does not require large investments and offers significant benefits in inventory optimization and cost reduction. Overall, the research provides a practical and accessible alternative to improve inventory management in the sector studied.