Análisis financiero del proceso de evaluación crediticia para personas naturales y su impacto en el riesgo y la rentabilidad bancaria. Estudio de caso: Banco Serfinanza S.A. Financial analysis of the credit evaluation process for individuals and its impact on bank risk and profitability. Case study: Banco Serfinanza S.A.

Abstract

This study analyzes the relationship between the credit evaluation process for individuals at Banco Serfinanza S.A. and the entity's credit risk and financial profitability indicators during 2024. Using a quantitative approach with complementary documentary analysis and a descriptive-propositive scope, the entity's financial statements, audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers as of December 31, 2024, and reported to the Financial Superintendency of Colombia, were analyzed. The results reveal that Banco Serfinanza closed 2024 with a net profit of COP 2,104 million, a 67.9% decrease compared to the COP 6,546 million of 2023, with a ROA of 0.07% and a ROE of 0.61%, indicators significantly lower than the sector average. The Portfolio Quality Indicator by Maturity (ICV) registered an improvement from 7.5% to 6.6% between December 2023 and December 2024. However, this level exceeds the average for the consumer sector (5.9% according to the SFC). Net loan loss impairment expenses amounted to $361.412 billion, significantly absorbing the generated intermediation margin. The study concludes that strengthening the credit evaluation process—through improved scoring models, stricter repayment capacity criteria, and early monitoring of deterioration signals—is the central strategic lever for reducing the Probability of Default (PD), decreasing provisioning expenses, and restoring the entity's profitability levels. Four specific improvement proposals are formulated, aligned with the SARC framework and industry best practices.