Riesgo crediticio y sostenibilidad financiera del Fondo Nacional de Garantías (FNG)

Abstract

This study analyzes the impact of increased credit risk on the financial sustainability of the National Guarantee Fund (FNG) in Colombia during the period 2020–2025. A mixed-methods approach, descriptive-explanatory in nature, is adopted for this analysis. This approach combines the analysis of quantitative variables, such as guarantee growth, portfolio value, delinquency, and claims, with a qualitative review of the regulatory, institutional, and macroeconomic context. The results show that the expansion of the FNG, driven largely by financial inclusion policies and government programs, has been accompanied by greater exposure to risk. Added to this are factors such as the lagged effects of the pandemic, the economic downturn observed between 2022 and 2023, and the high participation of users without a credit history. These elements, taken together, have contributed to increased delinquency and lower portfolio turnover. In this scenario, credit risk appears not as a temporary factor, but rather as a structural element inherent to the FNG's business model, given its focus on populations with more vulnerable profiles. Thus, the entity's main challenge is to manage this risk efficiently, without losing sight of its mission of financial inclusion. Finally, some strategies are proposed to strengthen risk management and improve loan recovery processes, seeking to preserve the balance between growth, social impact, and long-term sustainability.