Colombia ante la encrucijada digital: efectos económicos y empresariales de una eventual reducción arancelaria con China en un mercado dominado por plataformas de bajo costo

Abstract

The growing expansion of low-cost digital commerce and the potential tariff reduction between Colombia and China create a decisive scenario for the country’s productive structure. This study examines how tariff liberalization, combined with the rise of platforms such as Temu, may reshape domestic prices, business competitiveness, employment, and sectoral dynamics. It analyzes the economic and commercial effects of increasing Chinese imports, as well as the risks and opportunities faced by local industries in a market dominated by low-priced goods and accelerated consumption cycles. The analysis integrates perspectives from customs law, international trade theory, and recent studies on the impact of global platforms on Colombian SMEs, identifying transmission channels that could amplify or mitigate the effects of broader tariff openness. Methodologically, the study develops a documentary review and a comparative analysis of economic trends, trade policies, and digital transformations in Latin America, with emphasis on the Colombian case. Findings reveal tensions between competitiveness, business sustainability, and consumer protection, highlighting the need to strengthen productive, regulatory, and technological capacities to face a more demanding commercial environment. The study concludes by identifying critical areas for business and public-policy decision-making and proposes strategic guidelines to anticipate the effects of a potential reconfiguration of bilateral trade with China.