Incidencia para el canal de panamá ante una posible navegabilidad del océano ártico, a partir del estudio de las rutas costa este de los Estados Unidos –Asia y viceversa

Abstract

The global warming is provoked by greenhouse gases. It is caused by the industrialization and the rate of deforestation. These activities have caused the melting of glaciers in the Artic that will lead to not only important changes in his ecosystem, but to transit of goods by sea. This arouses the interest of the world powers, because the route (“Northwest Passage”) would connect the Atlantic and Pacific Ocean. It is located in the North Pole and it is considered as an alternative to the Panama Canal, because the advantages it could offer. This eventual thawing could generate, ships recognized by the use of the commercial routes through the Panama Canal, they would replace it by the Northwest Passage. It would represent for the Canal an income decrease that is provided by the ships. In order to determine the incidence for the Canal before a possible navigation of the Arctic Ocean, the following investigation is going to take into account a counterfactual analysis that characterizes what would lose The Panamá Canal in terms of volume and revenue by freight carried. The team has performed a descriptive statistics analysis for the purpose of estimate the percentage of participation in the main trade routes and the income decrease by volume of cargo. To summarize, the route East Coast U.S.A – Asia is the main commercial route of traffic of Bulk through the Canal. The logistic profile of the route allows considered it as a potential user to use the Northwest Passage.