Evasión del IVA asociada al contrabando en Colombia: cuantificación de pérdidas fiscales, distorsiones de mercado y evaluación del control aduanero

Abstract

This research analyzes tax evasion derived from smuggling and its economic effects in Colombia during the 2018–2022 period, with emphasis on Value Added Tax (VAT) revenue losses and market distortions generated by illegal trade. Through a quantitative descriptive-correlational approach, the magnitude of smuggling, associated tax evasion, and the effectiveness of government control measures were estimated. The findings show that cumulative smuggling reached USD 34.496 billion, with technical smuggling through under-invoicing as the predominant modality, generating an estimated VAT evasion of nearly USD 5.672 billion. Likewise, a high incidence was identified in sectors such as textiles, footwear, cigarettes, electronics, and medicines, all of which significantly affect fair competition and public revenue collection. The study concludes that VAT evasion associated with smuggling constitutes a structural problem that weakens public finances, generates unfair competition, and limits the effectiveness of fiscal policies. Although progress has been made in customs control and enforcement measures, institutional weaknesses persist, requiring comprehensive strategies to strengthen tax collection and reduce market distortions.