Browsing by Author "Lozano-Durango, Katherin"

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    Modelo de evaluación de proyecto de inversión basado en analítica de datos para determinar la viabilidad del montaje de una sucursal Starbucks en el municipio de Apartadó (Antioquia)
    Lozano-Durango, Katherin; Zamora-Velandi, Alexander
    This This work develops an investment-project appraisal model that integrates data-analytics tools with classical financial methods such as Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), payback period, and benefit-cost ratio, in order to assess the feasibility of opening a Starbucks branch in the municipality of Apartadó (Antioquia, Colombia), under the licensing scheme operated by Alsea in Colombia. The methodology combines a market study conducted with the local population, a technical-operational analysis of location and capacity, as well as a legal, tax, and five-year financial analysis. In addition, data-analytics techniques such as a 10,000-iteration Monte Carlo simulation, scenario analysis, and the construction of the Markowitz efficient frontier are incorporated to evaluate risk and profitability behavior. The results show a 58.5 % purchase-intention rate, mainly concentrated in socio-economic strata 3 and 4, together with projected demand growth from 80,482 to 142,952 annual transactions. Financially, the project presents an NPV of COP 702.6 million and an IRR of 61.31 %, based on an initial investment of COP 530 million recoverable in approximately two years. Furthermore, the stochastic simulation indicates a near-zero probability of loss and a Sharpe ratio of 1.86. In conclusion, the project is considered viable and demonstrates that integrating data analytics strengthens decision-making during the pre-investment phase.