Efectos de una probable re negociación del nafta para México y Estados Unidos

Abstract

This work aims to determine the trade and investment for Mexico and the United States of a possible termination or modification of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), the current most influential trade bloc in the world. Initially, is taken into account the historical background of both countries before the entry into force of the treaty, analyzing their commercial behavior with other countries and the possibility of implementing an economic block to expand investment coverage; Subsequently, the results that the members of the treaty had had after the entry into force of the treaty are exposed, comparing the figures of foreign investment and commercial exchange; highlighting the degree of participation and influence that these generate in each of the economies; Finally, the pros and cons of a possible renegotiation of the initial treaty under the administration of the new president of the United States, Donald Trump, and the expectation that this modification would generate for the other members of the treaty are exposed. Based on the theory of economic integration and its classification in the creation and deviation of trade exposed by Jacob Viners (1950), in order to know the commercial and investment dependence to analyze the alternatives that would have member countries of the treaty before change of conditions. Concluding with the expectations of a renegotiation that has for Mexico and the United States and pointing out the alternatives that the less favored country in case of losing its most important business partner.